Kalshi
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
House popular vote margin minus final VoteHub generic ballot margin
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor R+0.9 to D+0.9 at 26%, ahead of R+1 to R+2.9 at 15%. $0 traded in the last 24 hours, $5K in all.
- Favorite
- R+0.9 to D+0.9 26%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $0
- Traded in all
- $5K
- Closes
- March 1, 2027
Every outcome (top 6 of 9)
- R+0.9 to D+0.926%
- R+1 to R+2.915%
- D+1 to D+2.915%
- R+3 to R+4.97%
- D+3 to D+4.96%
- D+7 or more6%
3 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%6:19 AM6:19 PM6:19 AM26% R+0.9 to D+0.9
The line follows the current favorite, R+0.9 to D+0.9. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
