Polymarket
AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Republican 30-35% at 28%, ahead of Republican 25-30% at 23%. $115 traded in the last 24 hours, $14K in all.
- Favorite
- Republican 30-35% 28%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $115
- Traded in all
- $14K
- Closes
- November 4, 2026
Every outcome (top 6 of 10)
- Republican 30-35%28%
- Republican 25-30%23%▲ 3
- Republican 35-40%22%▲ 2
- Republican 40-45%19%
- Republican 15-25%7%
- Republican 45-50%7%▼ 1
4 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Polymarket.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%12:13 PM12:13 AM12:13 PM28% Republican 30-35%
The line follows the current favorite, Republican 30-35%. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Polymarket's own (displayed price), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
