Polymarket
MD-04 House Election Margin of Victory
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Democrat 80-85% at 32%, ahead of Democrat 85-90% at 30%. $2K traded in the last 24 hours, $21K in all.
- Favorite
- Democrat 80-85% 32%
- 24 hours
- down 3 pts
- Traded today
- $2K
- Traded in all
- $21K
- Closes
- November 4, 2026
Every outcome (top 6 of 10)
- Democrat 80-85%32%▼ 3
- Democrat 85-90%30%▲ 5
- Democrat 75-80%22%
- Democrat 70-75%10%▼ 0
- Democrat 90%+7%
- Democrat 65-70%2%▲ 1
4 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Polymarket.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%5:28 AM5:28 PM5:28 AM32% Democrat 80-85%
The line follows the current favorite, Democrat 80-85%. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Polymarket's own (displayed price), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
