Polymarket
MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Republican 30-35% at 29%, ahead of Republican 35-40% at 28%. $112 traded in the last 24 hours, $7K in all.
- Favorite
- Republican 30-35% 29%
- 24 hours
- down 1 pts
- Traded today
- $112
- Traded in all
- $7K
- Closes
- November 4, 2026
Every outcome (top 6 of 10)
- Republican 30-35%29%▼ 1
- Republican 35-40%28%▲ 2
- Republican 40-45%26%▲ 1
- Republican 25-30%11%▼ 0
- Republican 45-50%5%
- Republican 50%+3%
4 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Polymarket.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%1:46 PM1:46 AM1:46 PM29% Republican 30-35%
The line follows the current favorite, Republican 30-35%. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Polymarket's own (displayed price), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
