Polymarket
NY-04 House Election Margin of Victory
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Democrat 15-20% at 28%, ahead of Democrat 20-25% at 23%. $190 traded in the last 24 hours, $10K in all.
- Favorite
- Democrat 15-20% 28%
- 24 hours
- down 1 pts
- Traded today
- $190
- Traded in all
- $10K
- Closes
- November 4, 2026
Every outcome (top 6 of 8)
- Democrat 15-20%28%▼ 1
- Democrat 20-25%23%▲ 1
- Democrat 10-15%23%▼ 1
- Republican Wins10%▲ 4
- Democrat 25-30%9%▼ 2
- Democrat 5-10%8%▼ 5
2 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Polymarket.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%6:19 AM6:19 PM6:19 AM28% Democrat 15-20%
The line follows the current favorite, Democrat 15-20%. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Polymarket's own (displayed price), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
