Polymarket
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor National 0-5% at 40%, ahead of Labour 0-5% at 23%. $196 traded in the last 24 hours, $21K in all.
- Favorite
- National 0-5% 40%
- 24 hours
- up 14 pts
- Traded today
- $196
- Traded in all
- $21K
- Closes
- November 8, 2026
Every outcome (top 6 of 8)
- National 0-5%40%▲ 14
- Labour 0-5%23%
- Labour 10-15%10%
- Labour 15%+9%
- Labour 5-10%8%▼ 1
- National 10%+4%
2 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Polymarket.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%7:11 AM7:11 PM7:11 AM40% National 0-5%
The line follows the current favorite, National 0-5%. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Polymarket's own (displayed price), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
