Kalshi
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
During Trump's term
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Cuba at 5%, ahead of Venezuela at 2%. $1K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.9M in all.
- Favorite
- Cuba 5%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $1K
- Traded in all
- $1.9M
- Closes
- January 20, 2029
Every outcome (top 6 of 8)
- Cuba5%
- Venezuela2%▼ 0
- Puerto Rico2%
- Canada2%
- Greenland2%
- Guam1%
2 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%6:04 AM6:04 PM6:04 AM5% Cuba
The line follows the current favorite, Cuba. One reading an hour.
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More trump and the white house markets
- Fed Decision in October?No change 84%
- Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 5, 2026?38.2% 31%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?5%
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?Anna Kelly 21%
- Fed Decision in December?25 bps increase 72%
- Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/4-10/10)160-179 22%
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?3%
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?Before Jan 1, 2027 36%
Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
