Kalshi
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
Before Jan 1, 2027
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor U.S.–Mexico interim agreement at 39%, ahead of U.S.–Canada interim agreement at 32%. $0 traded in the last 24 hours, $13K in all.
- Favorite
- U.S.–Mexico interim agreement 39%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $0
- Traded in all
- $13K
- Closes
- January 1, 2027
Every outcome (top 6 of 8)
- U.S.–Mexico interim agreement39%
- U.S.–Canada interim agreement32%
- Trilateral revised deal26%
- U.S. withdrawal notice17%
- Formal USMCA amendment16%
- Formal 16-year extension14%
2 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%9:14 AM9:14 PM9:14 AM39% U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
The line follows the current favorite, U.S.–Mexico interim agreement. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
