Polymarket
Who will Trump speak to by October 31?
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Mark Carney at 98%, ahead of Friedrich Merz at 96%. $1K traded in the last 24 hours, $95K in all.
- Favorite
- Mark Carney 98%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $1K
- Traded in all
- $95K
- Closes
- November 1, 2026
Every outcome (top 6 of 21)
- Mark Carney98%
- Friedrich Merz96%▲ 1
- Ursula von der Leyen83%▼ 4
- Elon Musk73%▲ 2
- Mohammed bin Salman69%▲ 2
- Andy Burnham68%▼ 1
15 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Polymarket.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%6:43 AM6:43 PM6:43 AM98% Mark Carney
The line follows the current favorite, Mark Carney. One reading an hour.
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More trump and the white house markets
- Fed Decision in October?No change 84%
- Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 5, 2026?38.2% 35%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?5%
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?Anna Kelly 22%
- Fed Decision in December?25 bps increase 72%
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?3%
- Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/4-10/10)160-179 22%
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?Before Jan 1, 2027 36%
Prices are Polymarket's own (displayed price), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
