Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, June 4, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 1.7 points); Democrats ended the day 80% to win the House; the biggest move was NY-19 (New York), where Democratic odds went from 74% to 51%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-19 (New York) | D 74% | D 51% | ▼ 22.8 |
| UT-03 (Utah) | D 20% | D 41% | ▲ 20.4 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 36% | D 54% | ▲ 17.8 |
| TX-10 (Texas) | D 32% | D 14% | ▼ 17.8 |
| MI-03 (Michigan) | D 75% | D 58% | ▼ 16.6 |
| GA-07 (Georgia) | D 31% | D 17% | ▼ 13.7 |
| NC-07 (North Carolina) | D 35% | D 21% | ▼ 13.5 |
| NJ-03 (New Jersey) | D 79% | D 92% | ▲ 12.9 |
| NC-03 (North Carolina) | D 27% | D 15% | ▼ 12.0 |
| MN-06 (Minnesota) | D 36% | D 25% | ▼ 11.8 |
Lead changes
- FL-13 (Florida)Democrat now favored: D 36% → 54%
