Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, June 5, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 79% to win the House (Democratic odds down 0.9 points); the biggest move was NJ-05 (New Jersey), where Democratic odds went from 77% to 55%; 3 races changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-05 (New Jersey) | D 77% | D 55% | ▼ 22.1 |
| MA-05 (Massachusetts) | D 97% | D 76% | ▼ 20.2 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 13% | D 30% | ▲ 16.8 |
| TX-10 (Texas) | D 14% | D 30% | ▲ 16.3 |
| GA-07 (Georgia) | D 17% | D 32% | ▲ 15.2 |
| NY-19 (New York) | D 51% | D 66% | ▲ 15.1 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 54% | D 40% | ▼ 13.6 |
| NJ-03 (New Jersey) | D 92% | D 79% | ▼ 13.1 |
| CA-27 (California) | D 93% | D 81% | ▼ 12.3 |
| NC-03 (North Carolina) | D 15% | D 27% | ▲ 11.5 |
Lead changes
- FL-13 (Florida)Republican now favored: D 54% → 40%
- MI-04 (Michigan)Democrat now favored: D 47% → 54%
- MT-01 (Montana)Democrat now favored: D 50% → 54%
