Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Republicans ended the day 55% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 1.2 points); Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.9 points); the biggest move was CT-05 (Connecticut), where Democratic odds went from 87% to 94%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CT-05 (Connecticut) | D 87% | D 94% | ▲ 7.0 |
| OH-11 (Ohio) | D 94% | D 100% | ▲ 6.5 |
| NC-07 (North Carolina) | D 14% | D 20% | ▲ 5.8 |
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 20% | D 16% | ▼ 3.9 |
| OH-15 (Ohio) | D 28% | D 32% | ▲ 3.8 |
| SC-01 (South Carolina) | D 31% | D 27% | ▼ 3.7 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 29% | D 25% | ▼ 3.7 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 14% | D 17% | ▲ 3.7 |
| MD-01 (Maryland) | D 21% | D 17% | ▼ 3.4 |
| Maine Senate | D 60% | D 63% | ▲ 3.3 |
