Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, August 21, 2026
Republicans ended the day 52% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 86% to win the House (Democratic odds down 0.9 points); the biggest move was FL-13 (Florida), where Democratic odds went from 37% to 24%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 37% | D 24% | ▼ 12.6 |
| PA-01 (Pennsylvania) | D 43% | D 52% | ▲ 9.1 |
| CA-45 (California) | D 89% | D 84% | ▼ 4.9 |
| MI-10 (Michigan) | D 71% | D 66% | ▼ 4.3 |
| PA-07 (Pennsylvania) | D 72% | D 76% | ▲ 4.0 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 88% | D 92% | ▲ 3.5 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | D 75% | D 78% | ▲ 3.5 |
| Wisconsin Governor | D 76% | D 79% | ▲ 3.2 |
| CA-27 (California) | D 89% | D 93% | ▲ 3.2 |
| Alaska Governor | D 52% | D 49% | ▼ 3.0 |
