Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, September 18, 2026
Democrats ended the day 59% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 0.7 points) and 90% to win the House; the biggest move was IL-04 (Illinois), where Democratic odds went from 94% to 86%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| IL-04 (Illinois) | D 94% | D 86% | ▼ 8.1 |
| CA-35 (California) | D 97% | D 90% | ▼ 7.7 |
| UT-02 (Utah) | D 4% | D 10% | ▲ 5.6 |
| SC-04 (South Carolina) | D 6% | D 11% | ▲ 5.0 |
| CO-08 (Colorado) | D 84% | D 80% | ▼ 4.2 |
| NY-17 (New York) | D 65% | D 61% | ▼ 3.9 |
| IA-02 (Iowa) | D 55% | D 51% | ▼ 3.8 |
| Kansas Senate | D 24% | D 27% | ▲ 3.5 |
| CO-04 (Colorado) | D 31% | D 28% | ▼ 3.4 |
| TX-35 (Texas) | D 59% | D 62% | ▲ 3.3 |
