Daily market report
Election markets on Saturday, September 19, 2026
Democrats ended the day 60% to win the Senate and 90% to win the House; the biggest move was IL-04 (Illinois), where Democratic odds went from 86% to 94%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| IL-04 (Illinois) | D 86% | D 94% | ▲ 8.6 |
| CA-35 (California) | D 90% | D 97% | ▲ 7.6 |
| Alaska Governor | D 73% | D 80% | ▲ 7.3 |
| UT-02 (Utah) | D 10% | D 4% | ▼ 5.5 |
| SC-04 (South Carolina) | D 11% | D 6% | ▼ 4.2 |
| CO-04 (Colorado) | D 28% | D 31% | ▲ 2.9 |
| AZ-02 (Arizona) | D 33% | D 30% | ▼ 2.9 |
| MN-01 (Minnesota) | D 22% | D 24% | ▲ 2.3 |
| MN-05 (Minnesota) | D 96% | D 94% | ▼ 2.2 |
| IA-01 (Iowa) | D 77% | D 80% | ▲ 2.1 |
