Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, September 21, 2026
Democrats ended the day 62% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 1.7 points) and 91% to win the House (Democratic odds down 0.7 points); the biggest move was ME-02 (Maine), where Democratic odds went from 43% to 38%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ME-02 (Maine) | D 43% | D 38% | ▼ 5.0 |
| Ohio Senate | D 55% | D 60% | ▲ 5.0 |
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 95% | D 91% | ▼ 4.3 |
| NJ-09 (New Jersey) | D 93% | D 97% | ▲ 3.4 |
| MI-08 (Michigan) | D 91% | D 95% | ▲ 3.4 |
| TX-32 (Texas) | D 13% | D 10% | ▼ 3.2 |
| TX-10 (Texas) | D 11% | D 8% | ▼ 2.9 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 30% | D 27% | ▼ 2.9 |
| Iowa Governor | D 78% | D 81% | ▲ 2.8 |
| GA-11 (Georgia) | D 3% | D 6% | ▲ 2.7 |
