Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Democrats ended the day 64% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 2.0 points) and 92% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.6 points); the biggest move was Michigan Senate, where Democratic odds went from 66% to 74%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | D 66% | D 74% | ▲ 7.1 |
| Alaska Senate | D 72% | D 78% | ▲ 6.0 |
| Iowa Senate | D 41% | D 47% | ▲ 5.9 |
| TX-35 (Texas) | D 63% | D 69% | ▲ 5.8 |
| Florida Governor | D 20% | D 25% | ▲ 4.9 |
| TX-34 (Texas) | D 76% | D 80% | ▲ 4.4 |
| NY-01 (New York) | D 23% | D 20% | ▼ 3.7 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 27% | D 24% | ▼ 3.7 |
| TX-23 (Texas) | D 35% | D 38% | ▲ 3.6 |
| Maine Senate | D 69% | D 72% | ▲ 3.6 |
