Polymarket
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Democrats 8-10% at 29%, ahead of Democrats 10-12% at 23%. $298 traded in the last 24 hours, $151K in all.
- Favorite
- Democrats 8-10% 29%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $298
- Traded in all
- $151K
- Closes
- November 4, 2026
Every outcome (top 6 of 13)
- Democrats 8-10%29%
- Democrats 10-12%23%
- Democrats 6-8%19%▼ 0
- Democrats 12-14%10%
- Democrats 4-6%9%
- Democrats 2-4%7%
7 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Polymarket.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%2:52 AM2:52 PM2:52 AM29% Democrats 8-10%
The line follows the current favorite, Democrats 8-10%. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Polymarket's own (displayed price), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
