Kalshi
2028 popular vote margin of victory?
Nov 7, 2028
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Democratic by 9.0% or more at 22%, ahead of Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99% at 14%. $0 traded in the last 24 hours, $106K in all.
- Favorite
- Democratic by 9.0% or more 22%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $0
- Traded in all
- $106K
- Closes
- May 6, 2029
Every outcome (top 6 of 20)
- Democratic by 9.0% or more22%
- Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%14%
- Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%11%
- Republican by 9.0% or more10%
- Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%7%
- Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%7%
14 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%4:45 AM4:45 PM4:45 AM22% Democratic by 9.0% or more
The line follows the current favorite, Democratic by 9.0% or more. One reading an hour.
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More parties and 2028 markets
- How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?48 17%
- How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?Below 193 28%
- Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?↓ 7% 76%
- Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?Texas 37%
- Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Ron DeSantis 15%
- 2028 Democratic VP nomineeElissa Slotkin 9%
- 2028 Republican Presidential ticketJD Vance and Marco Rubio 40%
- Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Jon Ossoff 54%
Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
