Kalshi
2028 Presidential race: exact outcome
2028
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance at 10%, ahead of JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris at 9%. $2K traded in the last 24 hours, $126K in all.
- Favorite
- Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance 10%
- 24 hours
- down 1 pts
- Traded today
- $2K
- Traded in all
- $126K
- Closes
- January 20, 2029
Every outcome (top 6 of 32)
- Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance10%▼ 1
- JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris9%▼ 1
- JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom8%
- AOC defeats JD Vance8%
- Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio7%▲ 4
- Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance7%
26 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%12:19 PM12:19 AM12:19 PM10% Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
The line follows the current favorite, Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance. One reading an hour.
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More parties and 2028 markets
- How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?48 17%
- How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?Below 193 28%
- Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?↓ 7% 87%
- Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?Texas 38%
- Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Ron DeSantis 14%
- 2028 Democratic VP nomineeElissa Slotkin 9%
- 2028 Republican Presidential ticketJD Vance and Marco Rubio 28%
- Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Jon Ossoff 49%
Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
