Kalshi
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
On Oct 4, 2026
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% at more than 99%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10% at 1%. $94K traded in the last 24 hours, $200K in all.
- Favorite
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% >99%
- 24 hours
- up 67 pts
- Traded today
- $94K
- Traded in all
- $200K
- Closes
- October 4, 2027
Every outcome (top 6 of 11)
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%>99%▲ 67
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10%1%▼ 2
- Lula da Silva, 0-5%1%▼ 49
- Lula da Silva, 5-10%1%▼ 8
- Lula da Silva, 10-15%1%
- Lula da Silva, ≥15%1%
5 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%3:56 AM3:56 PM3:56 AM100% Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%
The line follows the current favorite, Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%. One reading an hour.
Embed these odds on your site
Paste this into any page. It updates every 10 minutes and links back here. Add ?theme=light or ?theme=dark to the address to fix the colors.
More world politics markets
- Brazil Presidential ElectionFlávio Bolsonaro 81%
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceTarcisio de Freitas <1%
- Brazil Presidential election winner?Flávio Bolsonaro 82%
- Brazil presidential election: first round winner?Flávio Bolsonaro >99%
- Next French Presidential ElectionMarine Le Pen 45%
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceAugusto Cury >99%
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gadi Eizenkot 46%
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryFlávio Bolsonaro <5% >99%
Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
