Kalshi
How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?
2026 elections
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor 5 or more at 51%, ahead of Exactly 4 at 23%. $4 traded in the last 24 hours, $59K in all.
- Favorite
- 5 or more 51%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $4
- Traded in all
- $59K
- Closes
- December 31, 2026
Every outcome
- 5 or more51%
- Exactly 423%▼ 1
- Exactly 316%
- Exactly 28%
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%2:47 AM2:47 PM2:47 AM51% 5 or more
The line follows the current favorite, 5 or more. One reading an hour.
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More parties and 2028 markets
- How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?48 17%
- How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?Below 193 28%
- Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?↓ 7% 77%
- Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?Texas 37%
- 2028 Democratic VP nomineeElissa Slotkin 9%
- 2028 Republican Presidential ticketJD Vance and Marco Rubio 40%
- Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Jon Ossoff 54%
- Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?Senate 54%
Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
