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When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

a reconciliation bill

As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Before Jan 1, 2027 at 27%, ahead of Before Dec 1, 2026 at 12%. $0 traded in the last 24 hours, $7K in all.

Favorite: Before Jan 1, 2027 27%
24 hours: no change
Traded today: $0
Traded in all: $7K
Closes: November 1, 2026

Every outcome

Before Jan 1, 202727%
Before Dec 1, 202612%
Before Nov 1, 20261%

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%2:39 AM2:39 PM2:39 AM27% Before Jan 1, 2027

The line follows the current favorite, Before Jan 1, 2027. One reading an hour.

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Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.