Kalshi
Who will announce a California departure in 2026?
Before 2027
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Peter Thiel at 56%, ahead of Larry Page at 31%. $16 traded in the last 24 hours, $23K in all.
- Favorite
- Peter Thiel 56%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $16
- Traded in all
- $23K
- Closes
- January 1, 2027
Every outcome (top 6 of 7)
- Peter Thiel56%
- Larry Page31%
- Mark Zuckerberg28%
- Chamath Palihapitiya10%
- Palmer Luckey8%▲ 1
- Jensen Huang4%
1 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%7:14 AM7:14 PM7:14 AM56% Peter Thiel
The line follows the current favorite, Peter Thiel. One reading an hour.
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More parties and 2028 markets
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- 2028 Democratic VP nomineeElissa Slotkin 9%
- 2028 Republican Presidential ticketJD Vance and Marco Rubio 39%
- Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Jon Ossoff 43%
Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
