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On Kalshi, a regulated prediction market. Parlay the People shows its prices; it is research, not betting advice.

Kalshi

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?

Before Jan 2027

As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Before Jan 1, 2028 at 39%, ahead of Before Jul 1, 2027 at 13%. $15 traded in the last 24 hours, $48K in all.

Favorite: Before Jan 1, 2028 39%
24 hours: down 8 pts
Traded today: $15
Traded in all: $48K
Closes: January 1, 2027

Every outcome

Before Jan 1, 202839%▼ 8
Before Jul 1, 202713%
Before Jan 1, 20276%

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%12:13 PM12:13 AM12:13 PM39% Before Jan 1, 2028

The line follows the current favorite, Before Jan 1, 2028. One reading an hour.

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Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.