Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Republicans ended the day 50% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 86% to win the House; the biggest move was MO-05 (Missouri), where Democratic odds went from 72% to 54%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 72% | D 54% | ▼ 17.8 |
| MN-01 (Minnesota) | D 29% | D 18% | ▼ 10.5 |
| IA-02 (Iowa) | D 46% | D 52% | ▲ 6.2 |
| TX-15 (Texas) | D 55% | D 60% | ▲ 4.8 |
| NY-04 (New York) | D 90% | D 94% | ▲ 4.0 |
| NJ-02 (New Jersey) | D 16% | D 13% | ▼ 3.6 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | D 79% | D 75% | ▼ 3.4 |
| TN-09 (Tennessee) | D 10% | D 13% | ▲ 3.1 |
| MI-05 (Michigan) | D 4% | D 7% | ▲ 2.4 |
| NY-19 (New York) | D 98% | D 96% | ▼ 2.2 |
