Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, September 24, 2026
Democrats ended the day 62% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 3.4 points) and 92% to win the House; the biggest move was MN-05 (Minnesota), where Democratic odds went from 95% to 80%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MN-05 (Minnesota) | D 95% | D 80% | ▼ 15.2 |
| Vermont Governor | D 7% | D 17% | ▲ 10.6 |
| Maine Senate | D 73% | D 67% | ▼ 5.9 |
| FL-22 (Florida) | D 48% | D 53% | ▲ 5.3 |
| TX-38 (Texas) | D 6% | D 11% | ▲ 5.3 |
| Florida Governor | D 27% | D 22% | ▼ 5.1 |
| TN-04 (Tennessee) | D 5% | D 1% | ▼ 4.3 |
| NH-02 (New Hampshire) | D 94% | D 90% | ▼ 4.2 |
| UT-03 (Utah) | D 5% | D 9% | ▲ 4.0 |
| IL-04 (Illinois) | D 94% | D 90% | ▼ 3.9 |
