Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, September 25, 2026
Democrats ended the day 62% to win the Senate and 92% to win the House; the biggest move was MN-05 (Minnesota), where Democratic odds went from 80% to 96%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MN-05 (Minnesota) | D 80% | D 96% | ▲ 15.7 |
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 88% | D 96% | ▲ 7.4 |
| IL-16 (Illinois) | D 8% | D 2% | ▼ 6.1 |
| IL-04 (Illinois) | D 90% | D 95% | ▲ 4.7 |
| TX-36 (Texas) | D 9% | D 5% | ▼ 4.5 |
| UT-03 (Utah) | D 9% | D 5% | ▼ 4.2 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 26% | D 31% | ▲ 4.2 |
| TX-38 (Texas) | D 11% | D 7% | ▼ 4.2 |
| NE-01 (Nebraska) | D 19% | D 15% | ▼ 4.0 |
| FL-26 (Florida) | D 10% | D 14% | ▲ 4.0 |
