Where does this market trade?

On Polymarket, a regulated prediction market (Polymarket). Parlay the People shows its prices; it is research, not betting advice.

Polymarket

U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?

As of October 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor 5–15% at 79%, ahead of <5% at 9%. $68 traded in the last 24 hours, $9K in all.

Favorite: 5–15% 79%
24 hours: no change
Traded today: $68
Traded in all: $9K
Closes: December 31, 2026

Every outcome

5–15%79%
<5%9%
15–25%8%
25–35%4%
35%+3%

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%7:09 AM7:09 PM7:09 AM79% 5–15%

The line follows the current favorite, 5–15%. One reading an hour.

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Prices are Polymarket's own (displayed price), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.