Where does this market trade?

On Kalshi, a regulated prediction market. Parlay the People shows its prices; it is research, not betting advice.

Kalshi

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

Taiwan Travel Advisory

As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Before Jan 1, 2030 at 41%, ahead of Before Jan 1, 2029 at 30%. $180 traded in the last 24 hours, $293K in all.

Favorite: Before Jan 1, 2030 41%
24 hours: no change
Traded today: $180
Traded in all: $293K
Closes: January 1, 2027

Every outcome

Before Jan 1, 203041%
Before Jan 1, 202930%
Before Jan 1, 202818%
Before Jan 1, 20275%▲ 2

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%7:07 AM7:07 PM7:07 AM41% Before Jan 1, 2030

The line follows the current favorite, Before Jan 1, 2030. One reading an hour.

Embed these odds on your site

Paste this into any page. It updates every 10 minutes and links back here. Add ?theme=light or ?theme=dark to the address to fix the colors.

<iframe src="https://parlaythepeople.com/embed/market/k-kxtaiwanlvl4/" width="100%" height="250" style="border:0;max-width:420px" loading="lazy" title="Odds from Parlay the People"></iframe>

See this market on Kalshi →

More world politics markets

Brazil Presidential ElectionFlávio Bolsonaro 84%
Brazil Presidential election winner?Flávio Bolsonaro 82%
Brazil presidential election: first round winner?Flávio Bolsonaro >99%
Next French Presidential ElectionMarine Le Pen 45%
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gadi Eizenkot 48%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?March 31 72%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?16%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?October 5 99%

Every world politics market →

Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.