HI
Hawaii elections
Hawaii has 3 races with live prediction-market odds in 2026, 30 days before Election Day (November 3). Governor: Josh Green (D) 98%; HI-02 House: Jill Tokuda (D) 96%; HI-01 House: Ed Case (D) 97%.
2026 races
| Race | Favorite | Rating | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Josh Green (D) 98% | Safe D | $27K |
| HI-01 House | Ed Case (D) 97% | Safe D | $41K |
| HI-02 House | Jill Tokuda (D) 96% | Safe D | $81K |
2028 races
| Race | Favorite | Rating | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | the Democrat 88% | Likely D | $7K |
Key dates
- Election Day 2026Tue, Nov 3, 2026
How to vote in Hawaii, and how it has voted → · The full election calendar →
Ballot measures
- Authorize RISE Bonds Amendment (2026)77% pass
- Increase Time for Senate to Act on Judicial Appointments Amendment (2026)77% pass
The chance each measure passes, from Kalshi.
Campaign money in 2026
- House candidates raised
- $3.4M
- Outside spending
- $100K
Every federal candidate running in Hawaii, from FEC filings. Each race page breaks it down by candidate.
Candidates
Other Hawaii markets
- Hawaii Governor Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 40-45% 31%
- Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout370K-400K 36%
- Hawaii Governor General Election: voter turnoutAbove 350K 77%
- Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii?33%
- Hawaii's 2nd District margin of victoryTokuda, 20+ pts 97%
- Hawaii's 1st District margin of victoryCase, 30+ pts 96%
- Hawaii Governor margin of victoryGreen, 14+ pts 98%
- Hawaii Governor election: Gary Cordery vote percentAt least 26% 96%
- Hawaii Governor election: Josh Green vote percentAt least 58% 98%
- Hawaii 01 House General Election: voter turnoutAbove 200K 49%
- Which ballot measures will pass in Hawaii?Increase Time for Senate to Act on Judicial Appointments Amendment 77%
- Hawaii 02 House General Election: voter turnoutAbove 195K 61%
Odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes; campaign money from the FEC, daily. Research, not betting advice.
