Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, October 5, 2026
Democrats ended the day 65% to win the Senate and 92% to win the House; the biggest move was MT-01 (Montana), where Democratic odds went from 36% to 24%; 1 race changed favorites; $2.3M traded on 2026 races.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 36% | D 24% | ▼ 12.0 |
| NC-09 (North Carolina) | D 22% | D 17% | ▼ 4.8 |
| Nevada Governor | D 50% | D 54% | ▲ 3.9 |
| MO-03 (Missouri) | D 5% | D 2% | ▼ 3.2 |
| CO-05 (Colorado) | D 25% | D 27% | ▲ 2.7 |
| GA-10 (Georgia) | D 5% | D 2% | ▼ 2.6 |
| PA-01 (Pennsylvania) | D 35% | D 38% | ▲ 2.5 |
| TX-09 (Texas) | D 16% | D 19% | ▲ 2.4 |
| NC-07 (North Carolina) | D 17% | D 15% | ▼ 2.3 |
| TN-09 (Tennessee) | D 14% | D 12% | ▼ 2.2 |
Lead changes
- Nevada GovernorDemocrat now favored: D 50% → 54%
Where the money went
$2.3M traded on 2026 races across 14,008 trades.
- House control$407K
- Texas Senate$388K
- Iowa Governor$234K
- Nevada Governor$192K
- Iowa Senate$181K
- North Carolina Senate$143K
- Senate control$91K
- Michigan Senate$71K
Biggest single trades
- Iowa Governor: No Zach Lahn at 14¢, 10:58 AM ET$108K
- Iowa Governor: No Zach Lahn at 14¢, 10:58 AM ET$107K
- Nevada Governor: Yes Aaron Ford at 50¢, 10:38 AM ET$63K
- Nevada Governor: Yes Aaron Ford at 50¢, 10:38 AM ET$62K
- Iowa Senate: No Ashley Hinson at 54¢, 12:17 PM ET$58K
- House control: No Republican Party at 9¢, 7:48 AM ET$55K
Headlines
- California’s ‘largest tax hike in history’ called illegal by doctors, insurance firms New York Post
- Steve Kornacki analyzes voter trends ahead of midterm elections nbcnews.com
- Trump mocks Darline Graham Nordone’s Senate rival as Annie ‘Trannie’ Andrews Washington Examiner
- Senate Republicans move cash from purple North Carolina to red Kansas as battle for majority shifts KSHB 41 Kansas City
- Countdown to the 2026 Midterms: Big races on the ballot for North Texans WFAA
- Gridlock looms on congressional stock trade ban as parties clash over divestment KATV
- Gridlock looms on congressional stock trade ban as parties clash over divestment fox23.com
- Tillis reveals ‘biggest regret of my career’ in new book on Trump 2.0 Washington Examiner
- DOJ Reveals How Biden Admin Allegedly Silenced Parents From Speaking Out About Atrocities Happening In Schools Daily Caller
- Trump Warns Democrats Could Trigger ‘1929 Disaster’ WIBC 93.1 FM
- Chicago woman shot five times by Border Patrol agent sues Trump administration Washington Examiner
- Biden DOJ officials warned their school board investigation resembled ‘Anti-MAGA Task Force’ Washington Examiner
