MT
Montana elections
Montana has 3 races with live prediction-market odds in 2026, 30 days before Election Day (November 3). Senate: Kurt Alme (R) 92%; MT-01 House: Aaron Flint (R) 65%; MT-02 House: Troy Downing (R) 95%.
2026 races
| Race | Favorite | Rating | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Kurt Alme (R) 92% | Safe R | $796K |
| MT-01 House | Aaron Flint (R) 65% | Lean R | $331K |
| MT-02 House | Troy Downing (R) 95% | Safe R | $66K |
2028 races
| Race | Favorite | Rating | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | the Republican 86% | Likely R | $3K |
Key dates
- Election Day 2026Tue, Nov 3, 2026
How to vote in Montana, and how it has voted → · The full election calendar →
Ballot measures
- I-194 (2026)50% pass
- CI-132 (2026)76% pass
- CI-133 (2026)75% pass
The chance each measure passes, from Kalshi.
Campaign money in 2026
- Senate candidates raised
- $10.6M
- House candidates raised
- $7.6M
- Outside spending
- $22.9M
Every federal candidate running in Montana, from FEC filings. Each race page breaks it down by candidate.
Candidates
Other Montana markets
- Montana Senate margin of victoryAlme, 5+ pts 78%
- Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percentAt least 10% 94%
- Montana Senate Election: Turnout500K-550K 51%
- Montana Senate Election Margin of VictoryRepublican 9-12% 22%
- Montana Senate election: Seth Bodnar vote percentAt least 15% 98%
- Montana's 1st District margin of victoryFlint, 3+ pts 44%
- Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percentAt least 35% 97%
- Montana's 1st District margin of victoryForstag, 3+ pts 26%
- Montana's 2nd District margin of victoryDowning, 13+ pts 92%
- Montana 02 House General Election: voter turnoutAbove 250K 22%
- Montana Senate General Election: voter turnoutAbove 500K 47%
- Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?59%
Odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes; campaign money from the FEC, daily. Research, not betting advice.
