AZ
Arizona elections
Arizona has 10 races with live prediction-market odds in 2026, 30 days before Election Day (November 3). Governor: Katie Hobbs (D) 90%; AZ-02 House: Eli Crane (R) 69%; AZ-01 House: Amish Shah (D) 80%.
2026 races
| Race | Favorite | Rating | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Katie Hobbs (D) 90% | Safe D | $741K |
| AZ-01 House | Amish Shah (D) 80% | Likely D | $146K |
| AZ-02 House | Eli Crane (R) 69% | Lean R | $28K |
| AZ-03 House | Yassamin Ansari (D) 99% | Safe D | $54K |
| AZ-04 House | Greg Stanton (D) 98% | Safe D | $51K |
| AZ-05 House | Mark Lamb (R) 92% | Safe R | $61K |
| AZ-06 House | JoAnna Mendoza (D) 83% | Likely D | $36K |
| AZ-07 House | Adelita Grijalva (D) 98% | Safe D | $40K |
| AZ-08 House | Abraham Hamadeh (R) 84% | Likely R | $16K |
| AZ-09 House | Paul Gosar (R) 96% | Safe R | $41K |
2028 races
| Race | Favorite | Rating | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | the Democrat 84% | Likely D | $16K |
Key dates
- Election Day 2026Tue, Nov 3, 2026
How to vote in Arizona, and how it has voted → · The full election calendar →
Ballot measures
- Proposition 317 (2026)87% pass
- Proposition 319 (2026)84% pass
- Proposition 141 (2026)84% pass
- Proposition 144 (2026)72% pass
- Proposition 320 (2026)57% pass
- Banning noncitizens from voting (2026)66% pass
- Proposition 318 (2026)59% pass
- Restricting transgender school and athletic access (2026)66% pass
- Proposition 142 (2026)65% pass
- Proposition 316 (2026)89% pass
The chance each measure passes, from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Campaign money in 2026
- House candidates raised
- $56.8M
- Outside spending
- $17.5M
Every federal candidate running in Arizona, from FEC filings. Each race page breaks it down by candidate.
Candidates
- Yassamin Ansari D
- Adelita Grijalva D
- Greg Stanton D
- Paul Gosar R
- Mark Lamb R
- Katie Hobbs D
- Abe Hamadeh R
- JoAnna Mendoza D
- Amish Shah D
- Eli Crane R
- Jonathan Nez D
- Jay Feely R
- Juan Ciscomani R
- Bernadette Greene-Placentia D
- Andy Biggs R
- Elizabeth Lee D
- Dani Sterbinsky D
- Daniel Francis Butierez Sr. R
- Zuhdi Jasser R
- Daniel Butierez R
Other Arizona markets
- Arizona Governor margin of victoryHobbs, 2+ pts 85%
- Arizona's 1st District margin of victoryShah, 2+ pts 72%
- How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?5 53%
- Arizona Attorney General winner?Kris Mayes 82%
- Arizona Governor Election Margin of VictoryHobbs 6-9% 32%
- Arizona's 6th District margin of victoryMendoza, 1+ pts 79%
- Arizona Governor Election: Maricopa County WinnerKatie Hobbs (D) 88%
- Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?66%
- Arizona Attorney General Election WinnerKris Mayes (D) 81%
- Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?73%
- How many House seats will Democrats win in Arizona?5 47%
- Arizona Governor Election: Turnout2.6M-2.75M 35%
Odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes; campaign money from the FEC, daily. Research, not betting advice.
