TX
Texas elections
Texas has 40 races with live prediction-market odds in 2026, 30 days before Election Day (November 3). Senate: James Talarico (D) 64%; Governor: Greg Abbott (R) 74%; TX-35 House: Johnny Garcia (D) 61%.
2026 races
| Race | Favorite | Rating | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | James Talarico (D) 64% | Lean D | $20.3M |
| Governor | Greg Abbott (R) 74% | Lean R | $2.0M |
| TX-01 House | Nathaniel Moran (R) 98% | Safe R | $69K |
| TX-02 House | Steve Toth (R) 92% | Safe R | $32K |
| TX-03 House | Keith Self (R) 95% | Safe R | $57K |
| TX-04 House | Pat Fallon (R) 95% | Safe R | $47K |
| TX-05 House | Lance Gooden (R) 98% | Safe R | $70K |
| TX-06 House | Jake Ellzey (R) 99% | Safe R | $80K |
| TX-07 House | Lizzie Fletcher (D) 97% | Safe D | $70K |
| TX-08 House | Jessica Hart Steinmann (R) 96% | Safe R | $57K |
| TX-09 House | Alex Mealer (R) 84% | Likely R | $55K |
| TX-10 House | Chris Gober (R) 93% | Safe R | $44K |
| TX-11 House | August Pfluger (R) 96% | Safe R | $37K |
| TX-12 House | Craig Goldman (R) 95% | Safe R | $48K |
| TX-13 House | Ronny Jackson (R) 96% | Safe R | $38K |
| TX-14 House | Randy Weber (R) 96% | Safe R | $36K |
| TX-15 House | Bobby Pulido (D) 81% | Likely D | $2.4M |
| TX-16 House | Veronica Escobar (D) 98% | Safe D | $28K |
| TX-17 House | Pete Sessions (R) 94% | Safe R | $78K |
| TX-18 House | Christian Menefee (D) 96% | Safe D | $17K |
| TX-19 House | Tom Sell (R) 99% | Safe R | $37K |
| TX-20 House | Joaquin Castro (D) 96% | Safe D | $41K |
| TX-21 House | Mark Teixeira (R) 94% | Safe R | $74K |
| TX-22 House | Trever Nehls (R) 92% | Safe R | $31K |
| TX-23 House | Brandon Herrera (R) 62% | Lean R | $219K |
| TX-24 House | Beth Van Duyne (R) 91% | Safe R | $88K |
| TX-25 House | Roger Williams (R) 96% | Safe R | $36K |
| TX-26 House | Brandon Gill (R) 97% | Safe R | $54K |
| TX-27 House | Michael Cloud (R) 94% | Safe R | $57K |
| TX-28 House | Henry Cuellar (D) 89% | Likely D | $202K |
| TX-29 House | Sylvia Garcia (D) 98% | Safe D | $21K |
| TX-30 House | Frederick Haynes III (D) 98% | Safe D | $53K |
| TX-31 House | John Carter (R) 94% | Safe R | $66K |
| TX-32 House | Jace Yarbrough (R) 89% | Likely R | $75K |
| TX-33 House | Colin Allred (D) 98% | Safe D | $18K |
| TX-34 House | Vicente Gonzalez (D) 83% | Likely D | $75K |
| TX-35 House | Johnny Garcia (D) 61% | Lean D | $120K |
| TX-36 House | Brian Babin (R) 94% | Safe R | $37K |
| TX-37 House | Greg Casar (D) 98% | Safe D | $47K |
| TX-38 House | Jon Bonck (R) 93% | Safe R | $35K |
Key dates
- Election Day 2026Tue, Nov 3, 2026
How to vote in Texas, and how it has voted → · The full election calendar →
Ballot measures
The chance each measure passes, from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Campaign money in 2026
- Senate candidates raised
- $108.2M
- House candidates raised
- $148.5M
- Outside spending
- $339.1M
Every federal candidate running in Texas, from FEC filings. Each race page breaks it down by candidate.
Candidates
- James Talarico D
- Greg Abbott R
- Jake Ellzey R
- Tom Sell R
- Sylvia Garcia D
- Greg Casar D
- Lance Gooden R
- Veronica Escobar D
- Colin Allred D
- Frederick Haynes III D
- Nathaniel Moran R
- Lizzie Fletcher D
- Brandon Gill R
- Joaquin Castro D
- Christian Menefee D
- Randy Weber R
- Jessica Steinmann R
- Ronny Jackson R
- August Pfluger R
- Roger Williams R
- Pat Fallon R
- Keith Self R
- Craig Goldman R
- Brian Babin R
- John Carter R
- Mark Teixeira R
- Michael Cloud R
- Pete Sessions R
- Jon Bonck R
- Chris Gober R
- Steve Toth R
- Trever Nehls R
- Beth Van Duyne R
- Jace Yarbrough R
- Henry Cuellar D
- Alex Mealer R
- Vicente Gonzalez D
- Bobby Pulido D
- Brandon Herrera R
- Johnny C. Garcia D
- Carlos De La Cruz R
- Katy Padilla Stout D
- Ken Paxton R
- Gina Hinojosa D
- Monica De La Cruz R
- Eric Flores R
- Leticia Gutierrez D
- Tano Tijerina R
- Dan Barrios D
- Kevin Burge D
- Marquette Greene-Scott D
- Shaun Finnie D
- Caitlin Rourk D
- Melissa McDonough D
- Casey Shepard D
- Tanya Lloyd D
- Kristin Hook D
- Justin Early D
- Rhonda Hart D
- Angela Rodriguez Prilliman D
- Evan Hunt D
- Jason Pearce D
- Dione Sims D
- Claire Reynolds D
- Mark Nair D
- Laura Jones D
- Thurman Bartie D
- Ronald Whitfield R
- Edgardo Baez R
- Steven Shook D
- Alexander Hale R
- Yolanda R. Prince D
- Everett Jackson R
- Patrick David Gillespie R
- Adam Bauman R
- Chelsey Hockett D
- Lauren B. Peña R
- Martha Fierro R
- Kyle Rable D
- Danny Minton D
Other Texas markets
- Maine-Texas Senate ComboJames Talarico and Troy Jackson 45%
- Texas Senate margin of victoryJames Talarico, 1+ pts 62%
- Texas Senate margin of victoryKen Paxton, 1+ pts 31%
- Texas Lieutenant Governor winner?Dan Patrick 68%
- Texas Railroad Commissioner winnerJon Rosenthal 53%
- Texas Senate Election: Denton County WinnerJames Talarico (D) 56%
- Texas Governor-Senate comboGreg Abbott and James Talarico win 42%
- Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?Fort Bend 98%
- Texas Governor margin of victoryAbbott, 3+ pts 55%
- Texas Senate: Exact outcomeTalarico defeats Paxton 65%
- Texas Governor Election Margin of VictoryAbbott 0-3% 23%
- Texas Railroad Commissioner & Senate comboJon Rosenthal & James Talarico 47%
Odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes; campaign money from the FEC, daily. Research, not betting advice.
