Forecasters · 2026

The experts vs. the markets

448 races rated by The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections, side by side with what traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are paying. 38 races are a toss-up to at least one forecaster; in 19 the experts and the markets clearly disagree.

Where each forecaster has the races

Races rated toward each party (Lean or stronger) and toss-ups, by office. The market column puts Kalshi and Polymarket odds on the same scale.

OfficeCookSabatoInside ElectionsMarkets
Senate 35 ratedD 12 · 7 toss-up · R 16D 14 · 5 toss-up · R 16D 13 · 4 toss-up · R 18D 17 · 2 toss-up · R 16
Governor 36 ratedD 17 · 5 toss-up · R 14D 18 · 4 toss-up · R 14D 17 · 4 toss-up · R 15D 20 · 2 toss-up · R 14
House 377 ratedD 159 · 21 toss-up · R 197D 163 · 20 toss-up · R 194D 160 · 15 toss-up · R 202D 181 · 4 toss-up · R 192

Counts are of the races these pages track (seats up in 2026), not chamber totals.

Where the experts and the money disagree

The forecasters' average rating against the market odds, biggest gaps first. A gap means one side knows something, or is slow: watch which one moves.

RaceCookSabatoInside ElectionsMarketsThe split
TX-15 House raceTossupTossupTilt RLikely D 80% DTraders are more bullish on Bobby Pulido than the experts
NY-04 House raceLean DLean DTilt DSafe D 91% DTraders are more bullish on Laura Gillen than the experts
NJ-07 House raceLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Safe D 91% DTraders are more bullish on Rebecca Bennett than the experts
NE-02 House raceLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Safe D 92% DTraders are more bullish on Denise Powell than the experts
Michigan governor raceLean DLean DTilt DSafe D 94% DTraders are more bullish on Jocelyn Benson than the experts
NM-02 House raceLean DLean DTilt DSafe D 95% DTraders are more bullish on Gabe Vasquez than the experts
TX-35 House raceLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean D 61% DTraders are more bullish on Johnny Garcia than the experts
Alaska governor raceTossupTossupTossupLikely D 75% DTraders are more bullish on Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins than the experts
PA-10 House raceTossupTossupTossupLikely D 80% DTraders are more bullish on Janelle Stelson than the experts
OH-07 House raceTossupTossupTossupLikely D 81% DTraders are more bullish on Brian Poindexter than the experts
AZ-06 House raceTossupTossupTossupLikely D 83% DTraders are more bullish on JoAnna Mendoza than the experts
CO-08 House raceTossupTossupTossupLikely D 86% DTraders are more bullish on Manny Rutinel than the experts
NV-03 House raceLean DLean DLean DSafe D 94% DTraders are more bullish on Susie Lee than the experts
North Carolina Senate raceLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Safe D 97% DTraders are more bullish on Roy Cooper than the experts
NC-01 House raceLean R (flip)TossupTilt R (flip)Lean D 63% DTraders are more bullish on Don Davis than the experts
NC-11 House raceTossupTossupLean RLean D 71% DTraders are more bullish on Jamie Ager than the experts
Texas Senate raceTossupTossupTilt RLean D 65% DTraders are more bullish on James Talarico than the experts
MI-10 House raceTossupTossupTilt RLean D 66% DTraders are more bullish on Christina Hines than the experts
OH-09 House raceTossupTossupTilt R (flip)Lean D 70% DTraders are more bullish on Marcy Kaptur than the experts

Senate ratings

RaceCookSabatoInside ElectionsMarkets
Florida Senate race (special election)Solid RSep 23, 2026Safe RSep 22, 2026Solid ROct 1, 2026Likely R11% D
South Carolina Senate raceLikely RSep 23, 2026Safe RSep 22, 2026Likely ROct 1, 2026Likely R15% D
Nebraska Senate raceLikely RSep 23, 2026Likely RSep 22, 2026Lean ROct 1, 2026Safe R0% D
Kansas Senate raceLean RSep 23, 2026Lean RSep 22, 2026Likely ROct 1, 2026Lean R33% D
Iowa Senate raceTossupSep 23, 2026TossupSep 22, 2026Tilt ROct 1, 2026Tossup43% D
Texas Senate raceTossupSep 23, 2026TossupSep 22, 2026Tilt ROct 1, 2026Lean D65% D
Alaska Senate raceTossupSep 23, 2026TossupSep 22, 2026TossupOct 1, 2026Lean D73% D
Maine Senate raceTossupSep 23, 2026TossupSep 22, 2026TossupOct 1, 2026Tossup57% D
Ohio Senate race (special election)TossupSep 23, 2026TossupSep 22, 2026TossupOct 1, 2026Lean D63% D
New Hampshire Senate raceTossupSep 23, 2026Lean DSep 22, 2026TossupOct 1, 2026Likely D87% D
Michigan Senate raceTossupSep 23, 2026Lean DSep 22, 2026Tilt DOct 1, 2026Lean D73% D
North Carolina Senate raceLean D (flip)Sep 23, 2026Lean D (flip)Sep 22, 2026Lean D (flip)Oct 1, 2026Safe D97% D
Georgia Senate raceLikely DSep 23, 2026Likely DSep 22, 2026Lean DOct 1, 2026Safe D96% D
Minnesota Senate raceLikely DSep 23, 2026Likely DSep 22, 2026Lean DOct 1, 2026Likely D87% D

Governor ratings

RaceCookSabatoInside ElectionsMarkets
Nebraska governor raceSolid ROct 1, 2026Likely RSep 29, 2026Solid ROct 1, 2026Likely R10% D
Oklahoma governor raceSolid ROct 1, 2026Safe RSep 29, 2026Likely ROct 1, 2026Safe R8% D
Vermont governor raceSolid ROct 1, 2026Likely RSep 29, 2026Solid ROct 1, 2026Likely R24% D
New Hampshire governor raceLikely ROct 1, 2026Likely RSep 29, 2026Solid ROct 1, 2026Safe R5% D
Texas governor raceLean ROct 1, 2026Lean RSep 29, 2026Likely ROct 1, 2026Lean R26% D
Florida governor raceLean ROct 1, 2026Lean RSep 29, 2026Lean ROct 1, 2026Likely R24% D
Kansas governor raceLean R (flip)Oct 1, 2026Lean R (flip)Sep 29, 2026Tilt R (flip)Oct 1, 2026Lean R26% D
Nevada governor raceTossupOct 1, 2026TossupSep 29, 2026Tilt ROct 1, 2026Tossup54% D
Alaska governor raceTossupOct 1, 2026TossupSep 29, 2026TossupOct 1, 2026Likely D75% D
Georgia governor raceTossupOct 1, 2026TossupSep 29, 2026TossupOct 1, 2026Tossup49% D
Ohio governor raceTossupOct 1, 2026TossupSep 29, 2026TossupOct 1, 2026Lean D67% D
Wisconsin governor raceTossupOct 1, 2026Lean DSep 29, 2026TossupOct 1, 2026Likely D80% D
Arizona governor raceLean DOct 1, 2026Lean DSep 29, 2026Tilt DOct 1, 2026Likely D89% D
Iowa governor raceLean D (flip)Oct 1, 2026Lean D (flip)Sep 29, 2026Tilt D (flip)Oct 1, 2026Likely D88% D
Michigan governor raceLean DOct 1, 2026Lean DSep 29, 2026Tilt DOct 1, 2026Safe D94% D
Oregon governor raceLean DOct 1, 2026Likely DSep 29, 2026Lean DOct 1, 2026Likely D76% D
Maine governor raceSolid DOct 1, 2026Likely DSep 29, 2026Solid DOct 1, 2026Safe D95% D
Minnesota governor raceSolid DOct 1, 2026Safe DSep 29, 2026Likely DOct 1, 2026Safe D95% D
New Mexico governor raceSolid DOct 1, 2026Safe DSep 29, 2026Likely DOct 1, 2026Safe D95% D
New York governor raceSolid DOct 1, 2026Safe DSep 29, 2026Likely DOct 1, 2026Safe D96% D

House ratings: competitive districts

Districts any forecaster or the markets rate short of Safe. House ratings on Wikipedia are updated less often than Senate and governor ratings; check each forecaster's date.

RaceCookSabatoInside ElectionsMarkets
AZ-08 House raceSolid RJun 30, 2025Safe RJul 10, 2025Solid RJun 30, 2025Likely R16% D
FL-04 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Solid RMay 5, 2026Likely R15% D
FL-11 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Solid RMay 5, 2026Likely R12% D
FL-26 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Solid RMay 5, 2026Likely R11% D
IN-05 House raceSafe RFeb 6, 2025Safe RJul 15, 2025Safe RMar 7, 2025Likely R16% D
KS-02 House raceSolid RMay 29, 2025Safe RMay 29, 2025Solid RMay 29, 2025Likely R10% D
MD-01 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R10% D
MN-08 House raceSafe RFeb 6, 2025Safe RJul 15, 2025Safe RMar 7, 2025Likely R13% D
NC-05 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R13% D
NC-07 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R14% D
NC-09 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RFeb 6, 2025Solid RFeb 5, 2025Likely R17% D
NC-13 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R15% D
NC-14 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R12% D
NE-01 House raceSafe RFeb 6, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Safe RMar 10, 2025Likely R15% D
NJ-02 House raceSolid RAug 13, 2025Safe RApr 10, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R20% D
NY-02 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RSep 18, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R14% D
OK-05 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe ROct 10, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R13% D
SC-02 House raceSolid RJun 25, 2025Safe RJun 25, 2025Solid RJun 25, 2025Likely R11% D
TN-09 House raceSolid R (flip)May 8, 2026Safe R (flip)May 7, 2026Solid R (flip)May 8, 2026Likely R13% D
TX-32 House raceSolid R (flip)Aug 23, 2025Safe R (flip)Aug 29, 2025Solid R (flip)Aug 28, 2025Likely R11% D
WA-05 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RAug 14, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R17% D
WI-08 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Safe RJul 15, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R12% D
AR-02 House raceSolid RMar 13, 2025Likely RSep 16, 2026Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R17% D
CO-04 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Likely RJul 30, 2026Solid RMar 7, 2025Lean R31% D
FL-12 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Likely RMay 4, 2026Solid RMay 5, 2026Likely R13% D
NC-03 House raceSolid ROct 22, 2025Likely RSep 29, 2026Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R15% D
NY-01 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Likely RSep 18, 2025Solid RMar 7, 2025Likely R20% D
FL-16 House raceSolid RFeb 6, 2025Likely RMay 4, 2026Likely RSep 17, 2026Likely R16% D
OH-10 House raceLikely RAug 13, 2026Likely RSep 16, 2026Solid ROct 31, 2025Likely R15% D
AZ-02 House raceLikely RJun 30, 2025Likely RJul 10, 2025Likely RJun 30, 2025Lean R31% D
CO-03 House raceLikely RAug 13, 2026Likely RApr 10, 2025Likely RMar 12, 2026Lean R28% D
FL-07 House raceLikely RAug 13, 2026Likely RAug 10, 2026Likely RAug 20, 2026Lean R34% D
FL-09 House raceLikely R (flip)Sep 11, 2026Likely R (flip)Sep 22, 2026Likely R (flip)Sep 17, 2026Lean R29% D
MN-01 House raceLikely RJun 18, 2026Likely RMay 6, 2026Likely RSep 3, 2026Likely R23% D
MO-02 House raceLikely RSep 11, 2026Lean RSep 29, 2026Solid RMar 7, 2025Lean R26% D
NV-02 House raceLikely RSep 25, 2026Likely RSep 16, 2026Likely RAug 20, 2026Likely R21% D
NY-21 House raceLikely RSep 25, 2026Likely RSep 16, 2026Likely ROct 1, 2026Likely R18% D
OH-15 House raceLikely RAug 13, 2026Likely RSep 29, 2026Likely ROct 1, 2026Likely R25% D
SC-01 House raceLikely RJun 18, 2026Likely RJul 30, 2026Likely RAug 20, 2026Lean R29% D
TX-09 House raceLikely R (flip)Sep 25, 2026Likely R (flip)Sep 22, 2026Likely R (flip)Sep 17, 2026Likely R18% D
TX-23 House raceLikely RMar 12, 2026Likely RMay 6, 2026Likely RMar 12, 2026Lean R38% D
AL-02 House raceLikely R (flip)Jun 18, 2026Lean R (flip)Sep 10, 2026Likely R (flip)Jun 11, 2026Lean R25% D
ME-02 House raceLikely R (flip)Nov 6, 2025Lean R (flip)Sep 29, 2026Likely R (flip)Nov 5, 2025Lean R35% D
VA-05 House raceLikely RSep 25, 2026Lean RSep 29, 2026Likely ROct 1, 2026Likely R22% D
WI-01 House raceLean RSep 25, 2026Likely RJul 15, 2025Likely RSep 17, 2026Lean R37% D
FL-13 House raceLean RSep 25, 2026Likely RApr 10, 2025Lean ROct 1, 2026Lean R26% D
KY-06 House raceLikely RJul 16, 2026Lean RSep 29, 2026Lean ROct 1, 2026Lean R28% D
PA-01 House raceLikely ROct 22, 2025Lean ROct 22, 2025Lean RDec 5, 2025Lean R38% D
FL-27 House raceLean RSep 25, 2026Lean RSep 22, 2026Lean RSep 17, 2026Lean R34% D
MT-01 House raceLean RSep 25, 2026Lean RSep 29, 2026Lean ROct 1, 2026Lean R32% D
TX-35 House raceLean R (flip)Sep 25, 2025Lean R (flip)May 27, 2026Lean R (flip)Sep 3, 2026Lean D61% D
CO-05 House raceLean RSep 25, 2026Lean RSep 16, 2026Tilt RSep 17, 2026Lean R26% D
VA-01 House raceLean RMay 8, 2026TossupSep 29, 2026Lean RMay 8, 2026Tossup50% D
FL-22 House raceTossupSep 25, 2026Lean R (flip)Aug 26, 2026Tilt R (flip)Aug 20, 2026Tossup54% D
IA-02 House raceLean RJun 18, 2026TossupSep 22, 2026Tilt RSep 17, 2026Tossup54% D
MI-04 House raceLean RJun 18, 2026TossupSep 16, 2026Tilt ROct 1, 2026Tossup48% D
NC-01 House raceLean R (flip)Dec 1, 2025TossupJul 30, 2026Tilt R (flip)Sep 17, 2026Lean D63% D
NC-11 House raceTossupSep 25, 2026TossupJul 30, 2026Lean RJun 11, 2026Lean D71% D
MI-10 House raceTossupAug 25, 2026TossupMay 26, 2026Tilt RMay 21, 2026Lean D66% D
OH-09 House raceTossupJan 15, 2026TossupMay 6, 2026Tilt R (flip)Oct 31, 2025Lean D70% D
TX-15 House raceTossupSep 25, 2026TossupAug 26, 2026Tilt RAug 20, 2026Likely D80% D
AZ-06 House raceTossupJun 30, 2025TossupJul 10, 2025TossupJun 30, 2025Likely D83% D
CO-08 House raceTossupFeb 6, 2025TossupApr 10, 2025TossupMar 7, 2025Likely D86% D
FL-14 House raceTossupAug 25, 2026TossupAug 26, 2026TossupSep 17, 2026Lean D65% D
FL-25 House raceTossupAug 25, 2026TossupAug 26, 2026TossupAug 20, 2026Lean D75% D
MI-07 House raceTossupMay 13, 2026TossupMay 26, 2026TossupMay 21, 2026Lean D61% D
NY-17 House raceTossupJan 15, 2026TossupJul 30, 2026TossupNov 11, 2025Lean D63% D
OH-07 House raceTossupAug 10, 2026TossupAug 8, 2026TossupAug 10, 2026Likely D81% D
PA-08 House raceTossupApr 7, 2026TossupJul 30, 2026TossupJun 12, 2026Lean D71% D
PA-10 House raceTossupSep 11, 2025TossupApr 10, 2025TossupMay 21, 2026Likely D80% D
WI-03 House raceTossupApr 29, 2025TossupJul 15, 2025TossupJun 11, 2026Lean D73% D
IA-03 House raceTossupJan 15, 2026TossupOct 2, 2025Tilt D (flip)Oct 1, 2026Likely D77% D
AZ-01 House raceLean D (flip)Sep 25, 2026TossupJul 10, 2025TossupOct 1, 2025Likely D80% D
PA-07 House raceTossupSep 11, 2025Lean D (flip)Sep 29, 2026TossupSep 11, 2025Likely D86% D
TX-34 House raceTossupJan 15, 2026Lean DSep 10, 2026TossupAug 28, 2025Likely D83% D
VA-02 House raceTossupMay 8, 2026Lean D (flip)Sep 29, 2026TossupMay 8, 2026Likely D82% D
WA-03 House raceTossupFeb 6, 2025Lean DAug 14, 2025TossupMay 21, 2025Likely D90% D
IA-01 House raceTossupFeb 6, 2025Lean D (flip)Sep 22, 2026Tilt D (flip)Oct 1, 2026Likely D84% D
NE-02 House raceLean D (flip)Jun 30, 2025Lean D (flip)Jun 30, 2025Tilt D (flip)Dec 5, 2025Safe D92% D
NJ-07 House raceLean D (flip)Sep 25, 2026Lean D (flip)Sep 16, 2026Tilt D (flip)Jun 11, 2026Safe D91% D
NM-02 House raceLean DJan 15, 2026Lean DJun 19, 2025Tilt DJun 19, 2025Safe D95% D
NY-04 House raceLean DJan 15, 2026Lean DSep 18, 2025Tilt DMar 7, 2025Safe D91% D
OH-01 House raceLean DApr 7, 2026Lean DMar 26, 2026Tilt DJun 12, 2026Likely D88% D
TX-28 House raceLean DDec 9, 2025Lean DDec 10, 2025Tilt DAug 28, 2025Likely D89% D
NV-03 House raceLean DFeb 6, 2025Lean DJul 15, 2025Lean DMar 7, 2025Safe D94% D
NY-03 House raceLean DFeb 6, 2025Lean DSep 18, 2025Lean DMar 7, 2025Likely D88% D
NH-01 House raceLikely DFeb 6, 2025Lean DJul 15, 2025Lean DMar 7, 2025Safe D96% D
NV-01 House raceLikely DFeb 6, 2025Likely DJul 15, 2025Lean DMar 7, 2025Safe D96% D
NY-19 House raceLikely DJul 16, 2026Likely DJul 30, 2026Lean DMar 7, 2025Safe D99% D
IN-01 House raceLikely DFeb 6, 2025Likely DMay 6, 2026Likely DJun 11, 2026Safe D98% D
MN-02 House raceLikely DApr 30, 2025Likely DMar 26, 2026Likely DDec 5, 2025Safe D95% D
NJ-09 House raceLikely DApr 7, 2026Likely DJul 30, 2026Likely DAug 20, 2026Safe D97% D
NV-04 House raceLikely DFeb 6, 2025Likely DJul 15, 2025Likely DDec 5, 2025Safe D97% D
VA-07 House raceLikely DMay 8, 2026Likely DMay 8, 2026Likely DMay 21, 2026Safe D95% D
MI-08 House raceLikely DAug 25, 2026Likely DMay 26, 2026Solid DAug 6, 2026Safe D94% D
NH-02 House raceSolid DJul 16, 2026Likely DJul 15, 2025Likely DMar 7, 2025Safe D94% D
OH-13 House raceLikely DApr 7, 2026Likely DMar 26, 2026Solid DMar 12, 2026Safe D98% D
MI-03 House raceSolid DMay 13, 2026Safe DMay 26, 2026Likely DMay 21, 2026Safe D97% D
OR-05 House raceSolid DJul 16, 2026Likely DSep 18, 2025Solid DDec 5, 2025Safe D99% D

The forecasters

The Cook Political Report ↗
Nonpartisan newsletter founded by Charlie Cook in 1984; its Solid/Likely/Lean/Toss-up scale is the industry standard.
Sabato's Crystal Ball ↗
Larry Sabato's forecasts from the University of Virginia Center for Politics; free to read, Safe/Likely/Lean/Toss-up.
Inside Elections ↗
Nathan Gonzales's nonpartisan newsletter; adds a Tilt step between Lean and Toss-up.

How to read the scale: Safe or Solid means not competitive; Likely, competitive but one party is clearly favored; Lean, competitive with an edge; Tilt (Inside Elections), the slightest edge; Toss-up, either party could win. "(flip)" marks a seat rated to change parties.

Ratings are the forecasters' own, as cited on Wikipedia's 2026 Senate, gubernatorial and House election pages (CC BY-SA 4.0), each with its date; visit the forecasters for their analysis. Last checked October 6, 2026. Market odds: the average of Kalshi and Polymarket, the Democrat's share of the two main parties. Research, not betting advice.

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